Well, here we are in the year 2001 and it isn't quite the "Space Odyssey" everyone expected. There is one constant however: Apple Computer is once again going out of business.
In fact, a C/NET columnist went as far in recent weeks to predict that 2004 will be the final year for Apple, the company that invented the personal computer in the 1970s and refined the personal computer experience with the Mac in the 1980s.
Now, I'm not one to make predictions, particularly when it's related to such a volatile business as computers. Concerning Apple, however, this prediction really doesn't make much sense. While Windows -- in all its current incarnations -- dominates computing, there is a growing public out there who doesn't want to follow the status quo. Face it, Windows is seen as corporate America. Apple, on the other hand, is still seen as counterculture and cool. In some ways it's Apple's cool factor and zealous users that make it the target of the corporate Wintel establishment -- whether it be by an information services manager or the technology press.
There was a time I thought that bad press could kill Apple Computer. I am now convinced that the only thing that can kill Apple is Apple itself. As we enter the year 2001, Apple is in a unique position of being the only computer manufacturer which can control the entire computing experience -- the hardware and the software -- for the end user. This is something that even Bill Gates cannot claim.
Today, in a time when people are looking for easy access to technology, Apple can lead out with devices that provide this accessibility to the masses. By doing so it can accomplish something in computers that companies like Sony have been able to do with electronics such as the Walkman. While this opportunity certainly is within reach of Apple, I am not convinced it is ready to take on this role. While Apple is without a doubt one of the most innovative computers companies ever, Apple is not the risk taker it once was. I recognized that Apple has had to become more like other PC companies in order to survive.
As I have mentioned in this column before, the guts of today's Mac are much like the guts of the average Wintel PC. While there are major differences such as the CPU, hard drives that work in PCs work in Macs, as do most other components. The difference in the Mac has always been the user experience. What started out to be a very simple interface has evolved into a complicated conglomeration of interface enhancements and add ons.
While the current Mac OS 9 is one of the most stable Mac operating systems ever, it is still essentially based on the original technology that created the Macintosh in 1984. Will OS X be the savior -- and liberator -- of the Macintosh operating system? From what I've seen so far, it is an impressive multi-threaded operating system that is extremely stable. While Apple has done a great job of hiding the UNIX underpinning of the new OS with its Aqua interface, it's still there and for the first time the Mac will have a command line available to the average user. Apple needs OS X, but IÕm not sure the average consumer does. There is little doubt it is a great entry into the server market, but I just don't see OS X in its current form winning over multitudes of Wintel users.
The company that gets the next evolution of the computer interface right may very well revolutionize the way humans interacts with silicone. I'm convinced, however, the next interface innovation will make computers as easy to use as a Palm Pilot or any home appliance. I believe that Apple -- with its unorthodox and innovative corporate culture -- is the computer company with the best ability to color outside the lines to create the next great innovation in computing.
Apple has for many years led the way in the industrial design of its hardware. Now it is time for Apple to lead the way with a device that revolutionizes the computing experience.